Strategy for University Leadership: Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs

University leaders tend to be master planners.   There is a tendency for the academic leader to work out a grand scheme beforehand for the accomplishment of long-term objectives.  Often this grand scheme is wrapped in the cloak of “university planning” and is part of a larger systematic arrangement of elements.

Warning!   Many modern thinkers suggest that this preoccupation with master planning often leads to “analysis paralysis” where little actually gets done because the team is always in the planning mode and never gets to the action phase.

In Jim Collins’ book Great by Choice, he and colleague Morten Hansen used extensive research to reveal some common principles that lead the companies to greatness. Collins suggests a “fire bullets, then cannonballs” approach to leadership. A bullet is a low-cost, low risk, and low distraction test or experiment. Successful leaders use bullets to empirically validate what will actually work. Based on that empirical validation, they then concentrate their resources to fire a cannonball, enabling large returns from concentrated bets. According to Collins, successful leaders fired a significant number of bullets that never hit anything. They didn’t know ahead of time which bullets would hit or be successful.

A calibrated cannonball has confirmation based on actual experience – empirical validation – that a big bet will likely prove successful. An uncalibrated cannonball means placing a big bet without empirical validation.  Uncalibrated cannonballs can lead to calamity. Companies paid a huge price when big, disruptive events coincided with their firing uncalibrated cannonballs, leaving them exposed. Successful leaders periodically made the mistake of firing an uncalibrated cannonball, but they tended to self-correct quickly.

The idea is not to choose between bullets or cannonballs, but to fire bullets first, then fire cannonballs.   The lesson for the university leader?   Don’t be afraid to fire a calibrated bullet and fail.   Experiment.   Innovate.   See what works and what doesn’t.    Discard your failures.   Build on your success.

 – from the pen of Dr. Percy Trappe